Running Back Rating- An objective comparison of All-Time great NFL running backs

To occupy some time over my spring break while keeping my brain sharp (essentially doing some "productive procrastination") I came up with the idea of creating an "objective" measure of the overall quality of NFL running backs. My idea was based on the system of the NFL Quarterback rating, which takes into account accuracy, touchdowns, and interceptions.

I developed a formula very similar to the NFL QB rating, for running backs, which takes into account rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fumbles. I used the data of the top 50 running backs from the 2001-2010 NFL seasons (found at Sports-Reference) to develop my formula. Since we're dealing with running backs, not wide receivers, I weighted rushing 87% and receiving 13% (based on rushing making up approximately 87% of the total touches for players in my data set.) The minimum score a player can receive is a zero, and the maximum is 100. My formula was designed to give an "average" (based averages from the data) player a score of 66.6 (So 2/3rds will be below and 1/3 will be above).

After a few failed attempts, oversights, and adjustments, I found some numbers that I was pleased with (the averages of the data earned a score of 66.25047...I'll go ahead and round). I've included my formula at the end of the post for anyone interested.

Now, comes the fun part. There are a number of running backs who are in the discussion as the "Greatest of All-Time": Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, among others. I wanted to see who (according to the formula) is, in fact, the greatest of all-time. Now, I know that there are some factors which are not included in the formula (and can't actually be quantified); with that being said, I'm just interested in people's relative ratings.

So, here's how folks came out:
Jim Brown: 94.8
Gale Sayers: 92.5
Barry Sanders: 84.7
OJ Simpson: 84.6
Marcus Allen: 73.7
Walter Payton: 73.5
Eric Dickerson: 69.5
Emmitt Smith: 65.7
Earl Cambpell: 65.3


According to this formula, Jim Brown is the Greatest of All-Time, followed closely by Gale Sayers. An interesting illumination (as much as it pains me to say this as a Cowboys fan) is that Emmitt Smith, the NFL career rushing leader, has only a slightly above average rating for his career, indicating that he was good, not great, and just hung around a long time (which is a credit to his toughness...not measured here).

I'll move on to looking at ratings for active players, and ranking the greatest single seasons of all time. In the meantime, I welcome your comments...

Murphy's Law (A probabilistic representation)

Let E={All possible things that can go wrong}
P(E) = 1

There you have it.

Heat Check

As a part of my daily routine, I was reading Dr. Andrew Gelman's Blog and came across an interesting post which he had been sent by Jarad Niemi. It is essentially using statistics to make a case that I have been stating for months (and had recently presented this video as evidence); that case being that Chris Bosh is incredibly overrated and should not be considered one of the "Big Three" in Miami. There's nothing I love more than when someone uses methods I enjoy to support my case.

Niemi's explanation of his graph and his methods (as posted on Gelman's blog) are below:
2010-2011 Miami Heat offensive (red), defensive (blue), and combined (black) player contribution means (dots) and 95% credible intervals (lines) where zero indicates an average NBA player. Larger positive numbers for offensive and combined are better while larger negative numbers for defense are better.

In retrospect, I [Niemi] should have plotted -1*defensive_contribution so that larger was always better. The main point with this figure is that this awesome combination of James-Wade-Bosh that was discussed immediately after the LeBron trade to the Heat has a one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other aspect. At least according to my analysis, Bosh is hurting his team compared to the average player (although not statistically significant) due to his terrible defensive contribution (which is statistically significant).

For Colored Girls...

So, I should probably be studying...or at least doing something related to school, but I'm not. I just came from seeing "For Colored Girls." Let me start off by saying that I've read the play by Ntozake Shange and seen a stage version of the play. I enjoyed a number of the poems/scenes in the play, in particular "Beau Willie Brown", "Somebody Walked off with my Stuff" and "Toussaint."
A number of questions and thoughts recurred for me throughout the film:
Thought #1: There is a reason there exists a distinction between plays and films. Not every play can be made into a film. In particular, I do not think this play should have been made into a film. "For Colored Girls" consists of a series of 20 poems, which are essentially just monologues. Nowhere in life do people speak in monologue other than on talk shows, perhaps. At one point during the film, Whoopi Goldberg's character and Thandie Newton's character are giving concurrent monologues in the same room. Yes, two people were having monologues which were loosely related to each other, while sitting in the same room, seemingly oblivious to what the other woman was saying...not too well thought out in my opinion. Incorporating monologues into a film is difficult to do naturally and, in my opinion, was done poorly in this instance.
Sub-thought: There is a difference between stage ACTING and screen acting. When people are acting in plays on stage, over-acting is necessary to allow people far from the stage to be able to feel like they know what's going on. In a film on a big screen, this is unnecessary, because the screen is...big. Everyone in the theater can see what's going on, and overacting just comes across as excessive. I'm specifically referring to Anika Noni Rose. She has done well in other films, like "Dreamgirls" but I felt like she was overacting.
Thought #2: Using this film (which took liberties from the play) as a random sample, apparently around 90% of black men are no good. Men are either drunks or cheat on their wives (some of them with other men, an a character Tyler Perry created and added on his own, not in the original play), or are rapists. I understand that the content of the play involved women who have been mistreated by men, but the only man who was actually considered present in any of the poems (to my recollection) was Beau Willie Brown.
Sub-thought: I guess Tyler Perry has something against black men.
Final thought: The two things I most anticipated in this film were seeing Phylicia Rashad's character (because it always makes me nostalgic to see Claire Huxtable) and seeing/hearing the poem "Toussaint." Much to my delight, this monologue was going to be performed BY Phylicia Rashad. To my dismay, however, it was cut short. From all of the artistic license that Tyler Perry took with this adaptation, why did he have to cut this monologue? There were enough outdated monologues which were left unaltered and included in the film...but he HAD to cut that one.
Let me end by saying that this isn't a commentary on Ntozake Shange's work, which I think is excellent. I enjoyed it and decided to see the film for myself, rather than jump on the bandwagon in either direction. Although Tyler Perry's adaptation could have been worse, it could definitely have been a lot better.
And please don't let me hear anyone else use the word "Oscar" in any discussion involving this film.

My Daddy is better than Kobe...

So, I recently came across this article on www.blackvoices.com. I must say that I was bothered on a number of levels.
Before I begin, I will state up front that I am indeed a Kobe Bryant fan, and have been since he came into the league. Now, with that out of the way, I would first of all like to say that Marcus Jordan is far too old for this. It is quite petty and shows a great deal of immaturity. Plenty of people think MJ is better than Kobe, and there is a legitimate argument for both sides, but this kid sounds like a little baby. As a college basketball player himself, Marcus Jordan obviously has aspirations of being as great as his father, otherwise why even bother playing.
When Emmitt Smith broke Walter Payton's all-time rushing yards record, Walter's son Jarrett (who played running back for the University of Miami at the time) was very gracious about it. He understood that his father is an all-time great, and regardless of whether or not his record was broken, he will always be remembered and honored.
In the same way, Michael Jordan is an all-time great, no question. MJ changed the game in so many ways, on so many levels. MJ was/is an inspiration to Kobe, the same way Walter Payton was an inspiration to Emmitt Smith. Nothing Kobe has done or will do is going to take away from what Jordan did. Let MJ's career stand on its own.
There are always going to be arguments on both sides of this MJ/Kobe debate, as there are in all sports for many different all-time great players. The debates will go on forever. All I'm saying is that if the players who themselves are involved in the debate can avoid pettiness (publicly at least) and we've seen other children of greats be gracious when their fathers have been debated/eclipsed, then just try to be a man about it, Marcus.

Life as I Know It

It's been brought to my attention (although I was already aware) that I have been incredibly neglectful of this blog for the past few...months. However, I feel this neglect has been justified for the sake of productivity. Now to bring things up to speed...
I have neglected writing for such a long period of time because I was in the midst of intense scholastic activity. I had regular classes, teaching, Masters' Oral exams, and finals exams...and then graduation. All of that was completed successfully, and I owe it all to NOT using this blog as a distraction/procrastination tool.
To wrap up the primary subject of my last few posts, I was accepted to Duke University the continuation of my education, and that is where I shall be for the foreseeable future. I'm getting myself ready (along with my fiancée) to move to Durham, NC in a few weeks.
Oh yes, that, I also got engaged a few weeks ago. So, I guess that means I should change the title of my blog, now...
That pretty much brings thing back up to speed. New posts coming soon...

Freedom...for now/Application Process (Part 3)

So, as of 20 minutes ago, I am finished with my semester. It came out well, I guess, but I'll have to wait until I see the final grades to say for sure. It was a good semester. I think that following my friend Marc's example and unplugging to keep focused on school was probably the best decision I could have made. I found myself bordering on insanity while studying for finals and completing assignments, but now that I'm finished with the semester I can relax and take pride in the hard work I did.
So, on to this application process update.
I got all 8 of my application completed early, despite some extreme procrastination on the part of one of my professors in getting my recommendation finished. That, in and of itself, was quite irritating. I had taken care of everything on my end, applications, transcripts, essays, and my other 2 professors had completed their recommendations over a month ago. Now, keep in mind that I had approached my professors asking them for recommendations in September, at which time I provided them with a resume/CV/bio and any other information they wanted, gave them a reminder in October (at which point one had already completed his), and, each time I saw this particular professor, asked him if there was anything extra he needed to complete the recommendation (to which he replied on each occasion "No, I don't think so. I'm not finished yet.") But, he finished on time, so no harm done. Now I am OFFICIALLY finished with the applications and will be waiting(im)patiently for decisions beginning in February.
So, now I have some time to unwind, contemplate the future, and maybe pick up a hobby...oh yeah, and go back to the gym.

The Black Theorem

Today, my Topology professor told us abou the "Black Theorem" of logic. Basically, all mathemaricians who are successful logicians end up going insane. The theory is, there is a Black Theorem of logic which, once discovered, sends the discoverer into madness. I'm on a quest to discover that theorem, and retain my sanity.
On that note, I'm following the example of my good friend Marc Robinson, and withdrawing from blogging, Twitter, and all other distractions until December. Stay positive.

Application Process (Part 2)

So, some time has passed, and some progress has been made in my application process. Through hours of thought, revision, and a few changes in direction, I've completed my essays. My advice regarding admissions essays to anyone going through the application process, go through a few drafts on your own, then a classmate or two read it, then let a professor in your department read it, then, finally, take it to the writing center for a final review. The logic behind this is, once you go through your revisions, you should have a piece of writing you're comfortable with. Having a classmate read it will allow for feedback from a peer. A professor in your department should, have a good idea of what the people who will be reviewing your essay are looking for. The last stage of going to the writing center is just to go over technical things. Just some advice I thought I'd pass on...
Anyway, I'd say I'm about 85% completed with the entire process. Let me say, this process has become rather expensive. Between GRE scores ($20 per school) my ASU transcripts ($15 per school) and application fees, the costs add up, QUICK! I'm now on the fence about whether or not I should submit one last application. I'm essentially finished with it, it's only a matter of paying the fees at this point and I'm not sure whether or not I want to pay another $105 (transcript, GRE and application fee). So, we'll see how that goes. Stay tuned for the completion of my application process...

Tenrary System

As a part of my analytical nature, I'm always considering ways to revise systems of how to quantify things. I believe I've stumbled on a revolutionary idea. Everyone has heard of the standard system for rating how attractive someone (scale of 1-10). I think 10 possible ratings leaves far too much grey area (i.e. what separates a 6 from a 7?). It's hard for uniformity among men as far as what a female would be rated. Than people start throwing in half-scores, 6.5, etc. and everything becomes far more complicated than it needs to be. There have been simplified rating systems, while I have advocated. First, the Tucker Max scale (based on ratings of 1-5). I think fewer ratings helps bring bring about more uniformity, but still there's too much room for disagreement, in my opinion. Next, while eating dinner with some of my high school classmates last Thanksgiving break, I was presented with the binary system. It was brought to my attention by Joe Thaman, a graduate of Notre Dame, so obviously an intelligent individual. It was told to him by a guy named Jim from Wisconsin, I'm not really sure of Jim's background. Anyway, the binary system entails a rating of 0 for a thumbs up, 1 for a thumbs down. With only 2 possible choices, there's a good chance for almost unanimity of ratings, but I think 2 choices oversimplifies things. Also, it was indicated that, circumstantially, a 0 can become a 1. With that reasoning, everybody is a 1.
So, with all the systems out there, I've seen positives and negatives in all of them and I have come up with the ideal system: the Ternary System. The Ternary system has 3 possible ratings: 0 is thumbs down, 1 is a maybe, 2 is a thumbs up. It's a system which is aimed at getting to the point: after all the back and forth it's either yes, no, or maybe. There's less room for argument than in the 1-10 scale or Tucker Max's system, but the binary system's issue of in-betweens has been addressed as well. Like people applying to a school, the entire application is reviewed, and you can get admitted, denied, or wait listed. Just like passing notes back in elementary school "Do you like me, Yes, No, Maybe: Check one." It's the obvious ideal system, it just needed to be formalized and articulated. I'll be looking for my invitation from the Nobel committee...

Application Process (Part 1)

So, for the third time in the last 6 years, I am in the midst of the university application process, for a doctorate this time. Thankfully, I've learned from past processes, and this time things are going fairly smoothly. It's funny, now, to think back over the last 2 application processes I went through.
Applying to college out of high school, I had PLENTY of advisement along the way. We had to start writing our admissions essay during our junior year, take the PSAT and all that. So, we had plenty of people making sure we were taking care of our business. Since the teachers were so involved in the application process, letters of recommendation were taken care of. I remember my statement of purpose was uncharacteristically well-written and revealing. The funny thing is, my teacher said that I shouldn't use it, because I was "overly critical" and didn't sell myself. At 16, I really did not have the desire to write another essay, so I just used that one. Coincidentally, I have not seen that essay since I sent it out for my applications. I wish I could find it and read what I'd written.
Applying for my masters out of ASU was a very different experience. I was on my own, concerned with a million other things, so applications were not at the top of my list of priorities, and nobody was there constantly reminding me of what needed to be done. I'd taken the GRE early enough, so I had that out of the way. I did online applications whenever it crossed my mind and I had some down time. I was able to get some recommendations from teachers who remembered me out of the large classes I had (probably the only time I benefited from being the only black student in class). My statement of purpose was the complete opposite of the essay used out of high school. I stated my case, made sure not to leave out any awards, honors, leadership, etc...but it was terribly written. I think I wrote it at about 8am, went to class, came back around noon and re-read it, went to my next class, re-read it, and was done with it. I found it about a week ago and read it over. All I could do was laugh. But, I guess it served its purpose.
And here I am again, for the last time. I have the GRE out of the way from 2 years ago, so I didn't have to worry about that, just find the score report. I requested my recommendations early, which wasn't a problem since my average class size at SLU is 8 people. Online applications are knocked out, now I'm back at the statement of purpose. I'm shooting for a happy medium between the previous two I've written: one that highlights my accomplishments, but is still a good read and tells my story. I'm in the revision stage currently, but I think I've got the essay about where it needs to be. Fortunately at this point, I'm about 2 months ahead of where I was during my application process 2 years ago(if you're doing the math, 2 months from now would be December, which is when most applications are due).
I'll keep you updated on how things play out...

SEC Referee Crew Suspended

This story broke a couple days ago, but the officiating crew that worked the Arkansas-Florida football game last Saturday were suspended until November 14th for some blown calls that they made, which weighed heavily in the outcome. The crew had also made a questionable call the previous week during the Georgia-LSU game. According to the ESPN report, "A series of calls that have occurred during the last several weeks have not been to the standard that we expect from our officiating crews," SEC commissioner Mike Slive said Wednesday. "I believe our officiating program is the best in the country. However, there are times when these actions must be taken." I watched the Arkansas-Florida game and I definitely agree that the calls were bogus. On top of that, Urban Meyer, Florida's head football coach (who benefited from the questionable calls) came out saying he thinks the suspensions were just. Now, I always try to remain mindful that any number of factors could have changed the game to the point where the referee's calls would not have mattered (i.e. the two field goals the Arkansas kicker missed), but, in any job, there must be penalties for mistakes made. I agree with this move, and I think other conferences should follow suit.

A Social Endeavor...

My topology professor (who received his bachelor degree in 1957, so I'm certain is in his mid 70's) told my class that we should talk with each other more, because "Mathematics is a social endeavor." He then proceeded to tell us stories about how, when he was a grad student at Northwestern, all of the math students lived in a house together and were always spending time together. You can imagine my immediate reaction. Anyway, while I understand that after a certain point, mathematicians work together to develop new ideas, create new theorems and things like that, I'm not there right now. So, rather than socializing with my fellow students, I've decided to embark on a different social endeavor, one in which I can share my thoughts on anything I choose, on my own terms. This should be interesting...