Running Back Rating- An objective comparison of All-Time great NFL running backs

To occupy some time over my spring break while keeping my brain sharp (essentially doing some "productive procrastination") I came up with the idea of creating an "objective" measure of the overall quality of NFL running backs. My idea was based on the system of the NFL Quarterback rating, which takes into account accuracy, touchdowns, and interceptions.

I developed a formula very similar to the NFL QB rating, for running backs, which takes into account rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fumbles. I used the data of the top 50 running backs from the 2001-2010 NFL seasons (found at Sports-Reference) to develop my formula. Since we're dealing with running backs, not wide receivers, I weighted rushing 87% and receiving 13% (based on rushing making up approximately 87% of the total touches for players in my data set.) The minimum score a player can receive is a zero, and the maximum is 100. My formula was designed to give an "average" (based averages from the data) player a score of 66.6 (So 2/3rds will be below and 1/3 will be above).

After a few failed attempts, oversights, and adjustments, I found some numbers that I was pleased with (the averages of the data earned a score of 66.25047...I'll go ahead and round). I've included my formula at the end of the post for anyone interested.

Now, comes the fun part. There are a number of running backs who are in the discussion as the "Greatest of All-Time": Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, among others. I wanted to see who (according to the formula) is, in fact, the greatest of all-time. Now, I know that there are some factors which are not included in the formula (and can't actually be quantified); with that being said, I'm just interested in people's relative ratings.

So, here's how folks came out:
Jim Brown: 94.8
Gale Sayers: 92.5
Barry Sanders: 84.7
OJ Simpson: 84.6
Marcus Allen: 73.7
Walter Payton: 73.5
Eric Dickerson: 69.5
Emmitt Smith: 65.7
Earl Cambpell: 65.3


According to this formula, Jim Brown is the Greatest of All-Time, followed closely by Gale Sayers. An interesting illumination (as much as it pains me to say this as a Cowboys fan) is that Emmitt Smith, the NFL career rushing leader, has only a slightly above average rating for his career, indicating that he was good, not great, and just hung around a long time (which is a credit to his toughness...not measured here).

I'll move on to looking at ratings for active players, and ranking the greatest single seasons of all time. In the meantime, I welcome your comments...

Murphy's Law (A probabilistic representation)

Let E={All possible things that can go wrong}
P(E) = 1

There you have it.

Heat Check

As a part of my daily routine, I was reading Dr. Andrew Gelman's Blog and came across an interesting post which he had been sent by Jarad Niemi. It is essentially using statistics to make a case that I have been stating for months (and had recently presented this video as evidence); that case being that Chris Bosh is incredibly overrated and should not be considered one of the "Big Three" in Miami. There's nothing I love more than when someone uses methods I enjoy to support my case.

Niemi's explanation of his graph and his methods (as posted on Gelman's blog) are below:
2010-2011 Miami Heat offensive (red), defensive (blue), and combined (black) player contribution means (dots) and 95% credible intervals (lines) where zero indicates an average NBA player. Larger positive numbers for offensive and combined are better while larger negative numbers for defense are better.

In retrospect, I [Niemi] should have plotted -1*defensive_contribution so that larger was always better. The main point with this figure is that this awesome combination of James-Wade-Bosh that was discussed immediately after the LeBron trade to the Heat has a one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other aspect. At least according to my analysis, Bosh is hurting his team compared to the average player (although not statistically significant) due to his terrible defensive contribution (which is statistically significant).

For Colored Girls...

So, I should probably be studying...or at least doing something related to school, but I'm not. I just came from seeing "For Colored Girls." Let me start off by saying that I've read the play by Ntozake Shange and seen a stage version of the play. I enjoyed a number of the poems/scenes in the play, in particular "Beau Willie Brown", "Somebody Walked off with my Stuff" and "Toussaint."
A number of questions and thoughts recurred for me throughout the film:
Thought #1: There is a reason there exists a distinction between plays and films. Not every play can be made into a film. In particular, I do not think this play should have been made into a film. "For Colored Girls" consists of a series of 20 poems, which are essentially just monologues. Nowhere in life do people speak in monologue other than on talk shows, perhaps. At one point during the film, Whoopi Goldberg's character and Thandie Newton's character are giving concurrent monologues in the same room. Yes, two people were having monologues which were loosely related to each other, while sitting in the same room, seemingly oblivious to what the other woman was saying...not too well thought out in my opinion. Incorporating monologues into a film is difficult to do naturally and, in my opinion, was done poorly in this instance.
Sub-thought: There is a difference between stage ACTING and screen acting. When people are acting in plays on stage, over-acting is necessary to allow people far from the stage to be able to feel like they know what's going on. In a film on a big screen, this is unnecessary, because the screen is...big. Everyone in the theater can see what's going on, and overacting just comes across as excessive. I'm specifically referring to Anika Noni Rose. She has done well in other films, like "Dreamgirls" but I felt like she was overacting.
Thought #2: Using this film (which took liberties from the play) as a random sample, apparently around 90% of black men are no good. Men are either drunks or cheat on their wives (some of them with other men, an a character Tyler Perry created and added on his own, not in the original play), or are rapists. I understand that the content of the play involved women who have been mistreated by men, but the only man who was actually considered present in any of the poems (to my recollection) was Beau Willie Brown.
Sub-thought: I guess Tyler Perry has something against black men.
Final thought: The two things I most anticipated in this film were seeing Phylicia Rashad's character (because it always makes me nostalgic to see Claire Huxtable) and seeing/hearing the poem "Toussaint." Much to my delight, this monologue was going to be performed BY Phylicia Rashad. To my dismay, however, it was cut short. From all of the artistic license that Tyler Perry took with this adaptation, why did he have to cut this monologue? There were enough outdated monologues which were left unaltered and included in the film...but he HAD to cut that one.
Let me end by saying that this isn't a commentary on Ntozake Shange's work, which I think is excellent. I enjoyed it and decided to see the film for myself, rather than jump on the bandwagon in either direction. Although Tyler Perry's adaptation could have been worse, it could definitely have been a lot better.
And please don't let me hear anyone else use the word "Oscar" in any discussion involving this film.

My Daddy is better than Kobe...

So, I recently came across this article on www.blackvoices.com. I must say that I was bothered on a number of levels.
Before I begin, I will state up front that I am indeed a Kobe Bryant fan, and have been since he came into the league. Now, with that out of the way, I would first of all like to say that Marcus Jordan is far too old for this. It is quite petty and shows a great deal of immaturity. Plenty of people think MJ is better than Kobe, and there is a legitimate argument for both sides, but this kid sounds like a little baby. As a college basketball player himself, Marcus Jordan obviously has aspirations of being as great as his father, otherwise why even bother playing.
When Emmitt Smith broke Walter Payton's all-time rushing yards record, Walter's son Jarrett (who played running back for the University of Miami at the time) was very gracious about it. He understood that his father is an all-time great, and regardless of whether or not his record was broken, he will always be remembered and honored.
In the same way, Michael Jordan is an all-time great, no question. MJ changed the game in so many ways, on so many levels. MJ was/is an inspiration to Kobe, the same way Walter Payton was an inspiration to Emmitt Smith. Nothing Kobe has done or will do is going to take away from what Jordan did. Let MJ's career stand on its own.
There are always going to be arguments on both sides of this MJ/Kobe debate, as there are in all sports for many different all-time great players. The debates will go on forever. All I'm saying is that if the players who themselves are involved in the debate can avoid pettiness (publicly at least) and we've seen other children of greats be gracious when their fathers have been debated/eclipsed, then just try to be a man about it, Marcus.

Life as I Know It

It's been brought to my attention (although I was already aware) that I have been incredibly neglectful of this blog for the past few...months. However, I feel this neglect has been justified for the sake of productivity. Now to bring things up to speed...
I have neglected writing for such a long period of time because I was in the midst of intense scholastic activity. I had regular classes, teaching, Masters' Oral exams, and finals exams...and then graduation. All of that was completed successfully, and I owe it all to NOT using this blog as a distraction/procrastination tool.
To wrap up the primary subject of my last few posts, I was accepted to Duke University the continuation of my education, and that is where I shall be for the foreseeable future. I'm getting myself ready (along with my fiancée) to move to Durham, NC in a few weeks.
Oh yes, that, I also got engaged a few weeks ago. So, I guess that means I should change the title of my blog, now...
That pretty much brings thing back up to speed. New posts coming soon...

Freedom...for now/Application Process (Part 3)

So, as of 20 minutes ago, I am finished with my semester. It came out well, I guess, but I'll have to wait until I see the final grades to say for sure. It was a good semester. I think that following my friend Marc's example and unplugging to keep focused on school was probably the best decision I could have made. I found myself bordering on insanity while studying for finals and completing assignments, but now that I'm finished with the semester I can relax and take pride in the hard work I did.
So, on to this application process update.
I got all 8 of my application completed early, despite some extreme procrastination on the part of one of my professors in getting my recommendation finished. That, in and of itself, was quite irritating. I had taken care of everything on my end, applications, transcripts, essays, and my other 2 professors had completed their recommendations over a month ago. Now, keep in mind that I had approached my professors asking them for recommendations in September, at which time I provided them with a resume/CV/bio and any other information they wanted, gave them a reminder in October (at which point one had already completed his), and, each time I saw this particular professor, asked him if there was anything extra he needed to complete the recommendation (to which he replied on each occasion "No, I don't think so. I'm not finished yet.") But, he finished on time, so no harm done. Now I am OFFICIALLY finished with the applications and will be waiting(im)patiently for decisions beginning in February.
So, now I have some time to unwind, contemplate the future, and maybe pick up a hobby...oh yeah, and go back to the gym.